TL;DR — If you own Korean stocks, directly or through a dollar fund such as EWY. KOSPI closed 39% below its June peak on Tuesday, Oct. 20, yet rate forecasters are not expecting a rate cut on Thursday: surveys expect a hold at 3.00%, and one survey of 10 bond-market experts also expects an increase in November. This week’s question in Seoul is not whether the Bank of Korea will rescue stocks, but whether it is only pausing its rate increases.
Your Door — what to check if you hold Korean stocks, directly or through EWY. On Thursday (Wednesday evening in New York), look past the 3.00% rate itself: check whether any Bank of Korea board member voted for an increase, and whether the statement hints at November. Next week, SK hynix and Samsung Electronics, about 44% of EWY (iShares, as of Oct. 16), report results on either side of a Federal Reserve decision, all within about one day.
Not financial advice.
KOSPI (Korea’s main index) closed at 5,552.74 on Tuesday, Oct. 20, down 3.73% on the day. That is 39.08% below its closing high of 9,114.55 on June 22, and its lowest close since April 7. Two days from now, on Thursday, Oct. 22, the Bank of Korea (BOK, Korea’s central bank) decides its policy rate. The forecasts we found do not point to a cut. They point to a hold now and, in the News1 survey, an increase in November.
Dates and times are Seoul time (KST) unless marked ET (U.S. Eastern). Stock and index prices are KRX (Korea Exchange) regular-session closes (15:30 Seoul). The exchange rate is the Seoul 3:30 p.m. rate as reported by Korean outlets, not the overnight or global rate. Dollar conversions are for scale only, at ₩1,328.1 per dollar, the Oct. 20 Seoul 3:30 p.m. rate. U.S.-listed prices (EWY, SKHY) are U.S. closes on U.S. trading days.
What happened in Seoul on Tuesday?
| Tue., Oct. 20 | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 5,552.74 | −3.73% |
| KOSDAQ (Korea’s smaller-company index) | 781.97 | −3.33% |
| Samsung Electronics | ₩211,500 (about $159) | −2.98% |
| SK hynix | ₩1,223,000 (about $921) | −4.23% |
| Won per dollar, 3:30 p.m. | ₩1,328.1 | −2.2 won (a stronger won) |
KOSPI touched 5,493.24 during the session (an intraday level, not a close).
On the KOSPI, foreign investors sold, on net, about ₩530 billion (about $399 million) of shares and institutions about ₩1.005 trillion (about $757 million), while individuals bought about ₩898 billion (about $676 million), according to preliminary figures reported by Money Today just after the close. The won still ended stronger. We covered that split between stocks and the currency last week (KOSPI’s crash week came with a stronger won); Korean outlets reported Tuesday’s rate as the won’s strongest level of the year.
One timing note: EWY closed at $156.58 on Monday, Oct. 19, in New York, up 4.08%. That session ended before Seoul’s Tuesday trading began, so EWY has not yet priced in Seoul’s Tuesday drop. Don’t compare the two day by day.
How deep is this slide?
- From the June 22 closing high (9,114.55): −39.08%
- From Oct. 2 (7,003.74): −20.72%
- Tuesday’s close was 1.48 points below Oct. 15’s 5,554.22, the day of last week’s circuit breaker, a mandatory trading halt (our report on the circuit-breaker session)
Where does the Bank of Korea stand?
The BOK’s policy rate is 3.00%. It raised the rate twice in a row: in July (2.50% to 2.75%) and on Aug. 27 (2.75% to 3.00%) (our report on the August increase). Thursday’s meeting is the BOK’s first rate decision since the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its own rate on Sept. 16 (what Seoul did after the Fed moved).
At a parliamentary hearing on Oct. 12, BOK Governor Shin Hyun-song said that by raising rates in August, the bank had moved ahead of the Fed’s September increase and “bought time” (our translation), and that inflation would stay above the bank’s target for a considerable period (confirmed on the record, reported by two outlets).
How a rate decision reaches a company’s numbers: through its interest costs and through its valuation, because higher rates lower what investors will pay today for profits in the future. For cash-rich chipmakers like Samsung and SK hynix, the valuation side matters more than interest costs. We are not saying rates caused this slide, and this article does not try to separate what moved Samsung and SK hynix.
What are rate forecasters expecting on Thursday?
| Source | What it shows | How sure |
|---|---|---|
| News1 survey, Oct. 18 (10 bond-market experts) | All 10 expect a hold; a top rate of 3.50% expected for this cycle, with increases in November and early 2027 | Press-reported forecast |
| Korea Financial Investment Association bond-market survey (reported Oct. 20) | 93% expect a hold, 7% an increase; no cut responses reported | Press-reported survey |
| Woo Hye-young, LS Securities (quoted by News1) | One or two board members voting for an increase (a dissent) would need to appear; if stocks fall further, the pace of increases may need adjusting | An analyst view, not BOK guidance |
In what we checked, the stock slide shows up only as a reason the BOK might raise rates more slowly. It does not show up as a reason to cut. The other side of the argument: if a 39% fall spreads into margin calls (forced selling of shares bought with borrowed money), financial stability could move ahead of inflation on the BOK’s list. A cap on margin lending of 15% per stock also took effect on Oct. 19, which points in the same direction. But we found no primary source this week that pushes that view beyond “the BOK will hold.”
What is on Seoul’s calendar over the next nine days?
| Seoul time (KST) | Event | U.S. Eastern (ET) | How sure |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu., Oct. 22, morning | Bank of Korea rate decision | Wed., Oct. 21, evening | Date from the BOK’s published schedule; announcement time not confirmed |
| Wed., Oct. 28, 9 a.m. | SK hynix third-quarter results call | Tue., Oct. 27, 8 p.m. | Company filing (DART 20261014800385) |
| Thu., Oct. 29, 3 a.m. | Federal Reserve decision (Oct. 27–28 meeting) | Wed., Oct. 28, 2 p.m. | Published schedule; futures imply about an 80% chance of a hold (CME FedWatch, via Forbes) |
| Thu., Oct. 29, 10 a.m. | Samsung Electronics third-quarter results call | Wed., Oct. 28, 9 p.m. | Company filing (DART 20261008800028) |
Dates only, not predictions.
At its August board meeting, SK hynix said it would announce “the specific size and method of additional shareholder returns” at the time of its third-quarter results (company statement, as reported by the press on Aug. 19). Whether its ₩40 trillion (about $30 billion) buyback, scheduled for Aug. 20 to Nov. 19, has finished was not confirmed as of Oct. 20 (our SK hynix investor hub).
Seoul opens six hours after the Fed’s statement, so on Oct. 29 Korean stocks will trade the Fed decision and Samsung’s results in the same session.
What does this week say about Korea’s market?
Here is what this week shows: KOSPI can be 39% below its peak, and Korea’s rate market still does not price in a rate cut to support stocks. In the surveys and bond-market readings we checked, the argument is not “hold or cut.” It is “hold now, or raise right away.” In the surveys we checked, Seoul’s rate expectations are tracking inflation more than stock prices, and the won has stayed firm while stocks fell.
Under the Gat (our take). “When stocks are down 39% and the rate market is still talking about increases, it suggests the Bank of Korea does not treat the stock market as its target. On Thursday, don’t watch the 3.00%. Watch for one or two board members voting for an increase.”
How do you get exposure from the U.S., and is there a U.S. parallel?
How to get exposure: for the whole market, EWY, a U.S.-listed ETF on NYSE Arca. For SK hynix, the ADR SKHY on Nasdaq (a U.S.-traded receipt for SK hynix shares). For other single stocks, direct buying on the Korea Exchange through a brokerage account that offers overseas stocks. Whichever door you use, the price comes from won-based shares.
U.S. parallel: in 2022, the Fed kept raising rates while the S&P 500 was in a bear market. The “Fed put” (the idea that the central bank steps in when stocks fall) did not arrive. Not a perfect parallel: the BOK says it already moved ahead of the Fed, and the won has been getting stronger, not weaker.
The bottom line
Seoul’s question this week is a narrow one: when the Bank of Korea pauses, which way does it point next? Then next week, the two companies that make up about 44% of EWY and the Fed all deliver news within 25 hours, Seoul time. Two of the three land in the U.S. evening; the Fed’s arrives mid-afternoon in New York.
FAQ
Will the Bank of Korea cut rates on Oct. 22?
The surveys we found expect a hold at 3.00%: all 10 experts in a News1 survey and 93% in a bond-market survey. We found no reported forecast of a cut.
How far has KOSPI fallen from its peak?
It closed at 5,552.74 on Oct. 20, 39.08% below its June 22 closing high of 9,114.55.
When does SK hynix report third-quarter results?
Wednesday, Oct. 28, at 9 a.m. Seoul time, which is Tuesday, Oct. 27, at 8 p.m. U.S. Eastern, according to its DART filing.
When is the Fed decision in Seoul time?
Thursday, Oct. 29, at 3 a.m. Seoul time. The Korean market opens six hours later.
Sources
- KOSPI, KOSDAQ, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix closes (KRX), EWY close: Yahoo Finance chart data (^KS11, ^KQ11, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, EWY; vendor data, not exchange-published figures).
- Investor net trading, Oct. 20: Money Today (preliminary, press).
- Won-dollar rate at the Seoul 3:30 p.m. close: Asia Economy (Oct. 20), cross-checked with two other outlets (press).
- Rate-decision forecasts: News1 survey via Financial News (Oct. 18); Korea Financial Investment Association survey via MTN (Oct. 20) (press).
- Governor Shin’s Oct. 12 remarks: Financial News (via News1) and MTN (press).
- Fed meeting and odds: Forbes (Oct. 19), citing CME FedWatch (press).
- SK hynix additional shareholder returns: company statement reported by Smart Today (Aug. 19) (press).
- Results dates: DART 20261014800385 (SK hynix), DART 20261008800028 (Samsung Electronics).
- BOK policy rate and 2026 meeting schedule: Bank of Korea.
- EWY weights: iShares MSCI South Korea ETF holdings, as of Oct. 16, 2026.
How sure are we?
| Item | Confidence |
|---|---|
| Index and stock closes, EWY close | Computed from vendor price data (Yahoo) |
| Seoul 3:30 p.m. exchange rate | ⚠️ Press-reported; cross-checked against the previous day’s level |
| Investor net trading | ⚠️ Press-reported preliminary figures, one outlet |
| Rate-decision forecasts | ⚠️ Press-reported surveys; forecasts, not BOK guidance |
| BOK rate 3.00% and meeting date | ✅ Confirmed from the Bank of Korea |
| SK hynix and Samsung results dates | ✅ Confirmed from company filings |
| Fed hold odds (about 80%) | ⚠️ Press-reported (Forbes, citing CME FedWatch); market pricing, not a Fed statement |
| EWY weight of Samsung and SK hynix (about 44%) | iShares holdings file, as of Oct. 16, 2026 |
| SK hynix buyback completion | Not confirmed as of Oct. 20 |
Not financial advice. TheGatBull is an independent publication; nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Written by Mr.Gat — TheGatBull
Korean market coverage from a Seoul-metro-based operator who reads the filings in the original language. Every price on this site is the KRX regular-session close (15:30 Seoul); every figure states whether it came from a primary filing, the press, or our own calculation. Drafts are AI-assisted, then verified against the original Korean documents and edited by a human before publishing.
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